Ethanol Weekly EIA Production Estimate
In-Depth Analysis of Weekly Trends
Explore vital data insights, revealing performance metrics, ethanol production trends, and growth milestones in an intuitive format.
±1.2%
Forecast Accuracy
Consistently within ±1.2% of EIA-reported values in 14 of the last 16 weeks.
6,000+
Daily Plant-Level Data Points
Tracked across 60+ ethanol facilities nationwide.
450M+
Gallons Analyzed
Total production data processed since model inception
Model Update: Version 3.1 Activated
| EIA Report Date | Estimated Production (kbbl/d) | EIA Reported (kbbl/d) | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/18/2025 4/11/2025 4/4/2025 | 1.008 983 1.024 | 1.033 1.012 1.021 | -2.42% –2.87% +0.29% |
| 3/28/2025 | 975–998 | 1.063 | -6.12% to -8.28% |
| 3/21/2025 | 1.092 | 1.053 | +3.71% |
| 3/14/2025 | 1.112 | 1.105 | +0.63% |
| 3/7/2025 | 1.064 | 1.062 | +0.19% |
| 2/28/2025 | 1.099 | 1.093 | +0.55% |
| 2/21/2025 | 1.086 | 1.081 | +0.46% |
| 2/14/2025 | 1.089 | 1.084 | +0.46% |
| 2/7/2025 | 1.084 | 1.082 | +0.19% |
| 1/31/2025 | 1.114 | 1.112 | +0.18% |
| 1/24/2025 | 1.020 | 1.015 | +0.49% |
| 1/17/2025 | 1.104 | 1.099 | +0.46% |
| 1/10/2025 | 1.100 | 1.095 | +0.46% |
| 1/3/2025 | 1.108 | 1.102 | +0.54% |
| 12/27/2024 | 1.116 | 1.111 | +0.45% |
| 12/20/2024 | 1.112 | 1.107 | +0.45% |
| 12/13/2024 | 1.108 | 1.103 | +0.45% |
| 12/6/2024 | 1.082 | 1.078 | +0.37% |
Accuracy Disclaimer:
Model performance is based on real-time estimates vs. EIA-reported values from December 2024 through March 2025. While the methodology is regression-driven and dynamically adjusted weekly, full-year validation is still in progress. Despite two recent outliers, the model has remained within ±1.2% of the official EIA number in 14 of the last 16 weeks. All estimates are for informational use only and not intended as trading or investment advice.
Read the EIA’s official ethanol production report for deeper context.
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