Ethanol Market Intelligence Before the EIA Report
Stay ahead of the market with real-time ethanol production insights.
The Coolidge Report provides daily production estimates, turnaround tracking, and early EIA forecast comparisons—delivering critical data to hedge funds, ethanol producers, and traders.
Daily Ethanol Production Reports
- Delivered every morning at 8 AM CT – Stay ahead of market shifts.
- Track production across monitored ethanol plants – Understand daily output trends.
- Compare daily data to historical production levels – Spot deviations early.
Early EIA Production Estimates
- Predict ethanol production trends before the EIA report is released.
- Get insights into supply conditions before the market reacts.
- See how production changes affect the broader energy and agricultural markets.
Our proprietary model has historically tracked closely with EIA figures, but market fluctuations and operational shifts may impact future accuracy.
Turnaround and Downtime Alerts
- Identify plants that are offline, ramping up, or running at reduced capacity.
- Monitor production disruptions and their impact on the supply chain.
- Receive early indicators of maintenance shutdowns and unexpected downtime.
Heatmaps and Utilization Trends
- Production Heatmaps – Visualize ethanol production across monitored facilities.
- Utilization Rate Comparisons – Identify over- and underperforming plants.
- Historical Data Analysis – Compare today’s numbers against long-term averages.
Who Uses Our Data?
- Hedge Funds and Commodity Traders – Leverage early production signals for trading strategies.
- Ethanol Producers and Plant Managers – Optimize production planning and understand competitive positioning.
- Gasoline Blenders and End-Users – Adjust blending and procurement based on real-time ethanol availability.
- Energy Analysts and Risk Managers – Monitor ethanol production trends for forecasting and risk management.
Why The Coolidge Report?
- Actionable Insights Before the Market Moves – Our estimates give you a first look at ethanol production trends.
- Built for Market Professionals – Designed for hedge funds, ethanol producers, and energy traders.
How to Get Access
Request a Demo – See a sample of our reports before subscribing.
Request a Quote – Pricing based on your firm’s size and data needs.
Contact Us – Let’s discuss how our data can fit into your trading or production strategy.
The Coolidge Report provides ethanol production estimates for informational purposes only. We do not guarantee exact alignment with EIA-reported figures or market outcomes. All estimates are subject to operational, regulatory, and market-based changes.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can I predict EIA ethanol production before the report?
The Coolidge Report provides pre-EIA ethanol production estimates based on real-time plant-level data, historical trends, and proprietary modeling. The model is updated weekly to reflect changes in plant throughput efficiency and market behavior.
The 3/21/2025 EIA-reported number (1,053 kbbl/d) was initially suspected to include a January data true-up. However, following the stronger-than-expected 3/28/2025 print (1,063 kbbl/d), the model has been recalibrated (v2.2) with improved conversion logic to reflect recent production dynamics more accurately.
Model Update: Version 3.0 Activated
New model prediction for 4/11/2025 (week ending 4/4): 1,024 kbbl/d vs. EIA-reported 1,021 kbbl/d — Error: +0.29%
Click here to see all of our EIA Estimates and Percentage Error
| EIA Report Date | Estimated Production (kbbl/d) | EIA Reported (kbbl/d) | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/2025 | 1.024 | 1.021 | +0.29% |
| 3/28/2025 | 975–998 | 1.063 | -6.12% to -8.28% |
| 3/21/2025 | 1.092 | 1.053 | +3.71% |
| 3/14/2025 | 1.112 | 1.105 | +0.63% |
| 3/7/2025 | 1.064 | 1.062 | +0.19% |
| 2/28/2025 | 1.099 | 1.093 | +0.55% |
| 2/21/2025 | 1.086 | 1.081 | +0.46% |
| 2/14/2025 | 1.089 | 1.084 | +0.46% |
| 2/7/2025 | 1.084 | 1.082 | +0.19% |
| 1/31/2025 | 1.114 | 1.112 | +0.18% |
| 1/24/2025 | 1.020 | 1.015 | +0.49% |
| 1/17/2025 | 1.104 | 1.099 | +0.46% |
| 1/10/2025 | 1.100 | 1.095 | +0.46% |
| 1/3/2025 | 1.108 | 1.102 | +0.54% |
| 12/27/2024 | 1.116 | 1.111 | +0.45% |
| 12/20/2024 | 1.112 | 1.107 | +0.45% |
| 12/13/2024 | 1.108 | 1.103 | +0.45% |
| 12/6/2024 | 1.082 | 1.078 | +0.37% |
Accuracy Disclaimer:
Model performance is based on real-time estimates vs. EIA-reported values from December 2024 through March 2025. While the methodology is regression-driven and dynamically adjusted weekly, full-year validation is still in progress. Despite two recent outliers, the model has remained within ±1.2% of the official EIA number in 14 of the last 16 weeks. All estimates are for informational use only and not intended as trading or investment advice.
How is your data different from Bloomberg, Argus, or DTN?
Unlike other platforms, The Coolidge Report focuses specifically on ethanol production and provides insights before EIA’s public data is released.
What industries use this data?
Our reports are used by hedge funds, ethanol producers, gasoline blenders, and energy analysts to track production trends and market shifts.
Can I get a sample report?
Yes! You can request a demo and receive a sample of our latest production insights.